GSS EU Science Funding Gateway

High-impact, low-probability events (HILP) and their cascading effects raise many challenges for governments, businesses and decision-makers, including defining where the responsibilities lie in preparing for both individual shocks and slow-motion trends (e.g. global warming, tipping points, sea level rise) that tend to increase their magnitude and frequency.

High-impact, low-probability risks (HILP/Hi-Lo) can manifest themselves not only as one-off high-profile crises and mega-disasters (e.g., Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident, eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, 9/11 terrorist attack in the U.S. and COVID-19 pandemic) but also as lower-profile, persistent events with equally serious impacts such as flooding, droughts and cyclones which, owing to the low likelihood of occurrence or the high cost of mitigating action, remain un- or under-prepared for.

To get the right balance between planning for specific ‘known’ events and creating generic responses for events that are rare or unexpected, research should support the anticipation and management of shock events through improving planning processes, establishing broader risk-uncertainty frameworks that capture such events, enhancing business resilience and responses to shocks, and stepping up communications in a crisis.